Saturday, December 29, 2018

Dec 29 - How to Bet Trump

Canadian politics was dominated by Donald Trump news this past year.  And 2018 was the year of Trump impeachment predictions.  Scholar Allan Lichtman has predicted that Donald Trump will be impeached in 2019.  He has successfully predicted 30 years of presidential elections, and predicted Trump's win in the 2016 presidential election, so people are paying attention.  

Lichtman created a model with Russian Seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.  It is known as the Keys to the White House.  His prediction on timing is that it will be in the spring.  He is promoting his book extensively on his Twitter site.

What does Wikipedia have to say about impeachment?  Wikipedia's entry is 'Efforts to impeach Donald Trump'.  It has extensive coverage, and includes the results of polls showing what percentage of Americans want Trump impeached.

There are several 'impeach 'o-meters' keeping track of this.  I listen to CBC's Day 6 Program on Saturday mornings and they give the latest 'reading' by a political expert who estimates the odds. Odds were better last Saturday than the week before.  

Since betting is a human activity, there is always somewhere to find out the odds of things.  One place is Paddy Power who are reported to be saying the current odds are 6-4 that he will not stay in office through 2020 - that's a 40 percent chance.

Website says the latest Yes Price is 50 cents.  Their odds are 43 percent up from 37 percent at the end of May.

The website odd shows the odds to be 'even money'. They considered this bad news.   The website (comparison site) says impeached in 2019 5/4 and in 2020 5/2.  Their chart shows almost 30 betting places to compare.   It makes me aware of how many people bet - supposedly 30 to 40 percent of the population.

What's ahead in 2019?  Will we see this play out?  The next few days and weeks will tell us what the experts have to say on this.

Today our pictures show some of the Sundance Layout in Florida.  


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