Sunday, March 25, 2018

Betting on a President

I noticed the spring Iris, Danfordiae is blooming in my garden.  Today our pictures are the Primulas in the Cole's Garden Centre.  They have a polyhouse packed with pansies and primulas, so the scent is divine. And of course, the colour is intensely splendid.

A similar intensity surrounds the topic that continues in the news and conversations.  I decided to check out the speculation that Trump will not last out his first term. How would one do this?  By looking at betting sites. Gambling is a topic I have never investigated, so find it interesting.

In January 2018, the odds of him being impeached were 4 - 7. The Newsweek article says that oddsmakers at Paddy Power thought in January that it's nearly twice as likely Trump will be impeached as it is that he will serve four hears in office.  The Newsweek article said:

"Paddy Power has additional ominous betting odds for the White House. Of the three years Trump has remaining in his presidency, the betting site has impeachment most likely in 2018. The odds that Trump is impeached in 2018 are nearly even at 5-4. For a sitting president, that doesn't paint a particularly rosy picture. The odds get exponentially better for Trump if he emerges from 2018 unscathed, as the site puts the odds at 7-1 that Trump is impeached in 2019 and 50-1 in 2020. "

We're not allowed to access the Paddy Power website.  So I found a betting site that covers this in the U.S. It is oddsshark.comThere are odds on the following:
  • exit date
  • complete a full term as POTUS
  • convicted by the senate in his 1st term
  • impeached by the house in hist 1st term
  • resign the presidency in his 1st term
There were odds on the duration of Donald Trup's handshake with Vladimir Putin, on whether Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin would hug, on whether Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin would kiss, and then all manner of things that he'll say:  best friends, comey, golden, great job, etc.  

For Obama, there were bets in bad taste - assassination was one of these in the headlines.  There are current bets on nuclear war due to North Korea, on the world ending, the next pope, and on and on.   These are at

Betting turns out to be a vastly popular activity and there are many stories of famous, bizarre, and stupid/dumb bets.  
So back to our pictures - the Primula Festival in the garden is around the corner.  I hope you enjoy these spring beauties. 

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